Bills training camp preview: How will Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid fit together?

Publish date: 2024-06-17

This is Part 4 in a 10-part series reviewing each position leading up to the beginning of Bills training camp July 26. You can follow the entire series here.

After casting doubts away from his first two years and becoming pivotal to the Bills’ future, the team invested a four-year contract extension into top tight end Dawson Knox. After all, Knox proved himself on the field and is extremely close with franchise quarterback Josh Allen.

But simultaneously, the team had been hoping to run more 12 personnel in 2022 to make its offense more unpredictable. The Bills signed O.J. Howard, only to watch Quintin Morris and Tommy Sweeney outplay him in the summer, leading to Howard’s departure at final cuts. And with Howard went the Bills’ personnel flexibility last season.

Now with a high-profile tight end entering the fold, how will the Bills handle the tight end room? Here is a detailed outlook for when the Bills return for training camp in late July.

2023 projected camp TE depth chart

What’s changed?

The Bills used their most significant offseason resource in 2023, their first-round pick, to bring in tight end Dalton Kincaid. He’ll join 2022 returnees Knox and Morris with the group. The Bills allowed four-year player Tommy Sweeney to go to free agency this offseason, where he signed with Brian Daboll and the New York Giants. The team also added Joel Wilson just ahead of OTAs and Nick Guggemos following a tryout at mandatory minicamp.

Biggest question

How much will the Bills commit to playing Knox and Kincaid together?

After the Bills selected Kincaid in the first round, general manager Brandon Beane laid out a clear vision for the pick. He believes Knox and Kincaid have complementary skill sets and can pair well on the field simultaneously. Knox is the in-line player who will handle more blocking responsibilities, which he’s really improved upon since entering the league. Kincaid is the move tight end they could line up all over the formation, potentially even taking snaps from the usual slot receiver in 11 personnel. The Bills wanted to run more 12 personnel last year, which lends itself more to the logic of picking Kincaid, and they believe Kincaid can bridge the gap between 12 personnel and 11 personnel, with Beane adopting the term “11-and-a-half” personnel. In his mind, it would force the defense to make a difficult decision either to leave a nickel corner on the field and make for a size disadvantage or to sub in a third linebacker while sacrificing movement skills and fluidity against Kincaid.

It’s all great in theory, but it really all falls on the shoulders of offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey to make it all work. In a year that the Bills would have liked to utilize more 12 personnel, they instead ran it more infrequently than any other team in the league in 2022. According to TruMedia, the Bills ran 12 personnel on only 38 of their 1,037 run or pass offensive plays in the regular season — a rate of only 3.7 percent. And there were five games last regular season that the Bills didn’t take a snap out of 12 personnel. They were one of only five teams that ran it lower than 10 percent of their offensive snaps. So, while Beane’s logic for adding Kincaid is great in theory, they’ll need their second-year offensive coordinator to prove that he’s willing to run it, commit to it and show they’re willing to go back to it even if it isn’t successful.

But there are two things potentially working in Dorsey’s favor showing the willingness to incorporate it more. First is the obvious: The talent upgrade from Morris to Kincaid this season. It’s a huge difference from one player to the next with Kincaid’s size, hands and movement skills, and teams would potentially defend the Bills differently with Kincaid on the field over Morris. Second, Dorsey and the Bills ran 12 personnel over 10 percent in two of their final eight regular-season games. Then against the Dolphins in the playoffs, they ran it 9.7 percent of offensive plays. So, there was more late-season willingness, although that’s still a far cry from what the Bills are hoping Kincaid’s role will eventually be within their offense. They’ve made Kincaid a key to opening things up and being more unpredictable on offense. Now they have to prove they can make the pick worth their while.

Potential camp battle

Quintin Morris vs. the field

Although the Bills brought in another tight end to take Morris’ spot on the depth chart from 2022, he looks to be in a promising situation heading into training camp. The Bills usually like to keep three tight ends on the 53-man roster, and Morris is the clear favorite to be the third because the team trusted him to be Knox’s primary backup last year. But this time last year, Morris was on the outside looking in to make the team. He used a strong training camp and preseason to unseat Howard and earn a spot, which means the Bills will remain open to all possibilities. Morris is at least somewhat susceptible to Wilson or Guggemos outplaying him for the final position.

Special teams

Knox isn’t much of a special teams asset and Kincaid isn’t expected to be, which makes the third tight end role critical to special teams functionality. And while Davidson is more of the prototypical tight end, Morris has a pronounced advantage in special teams. Last year, Morris was a core-four special team contributor for much of the year. With several mainstays of those units leaving the roster this offseason, Morris could be relied upon by coordinator Matthew Smiley. This will give Morris a sizable advantage to make the team once again.

Who makes it and why?

Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid and Quintin Morris

The top two, without question, will be Knox and Kincaid, and Morris is the strong favorite to win the third job. In addition to his special teams work, Morris could also moonlight in Reggie Gilliam’s fullback role if Gilliam suffered an injury at some point. Wilson and Guggemos are both long shots to make the team as it stands today. The likeliest outcome is that Morris gets another year on the 53-man roster, and a tight end, either in-house or playing somewhere else right now, finds their way to the practice squad for the 2023 season.

(Photo of Dalton Kincaid: Gregory Fisher / USA Today)