Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix odds, predictions: Can anyone stop Red Bulls dominance?
It’s Red Bull’s world and we’re all just living in it. At least that’s how it feels two races into the 2023 Formula One season. As the traveling circus that is F1 heads to Australia, we’re already posting mailbags answering questions on what else there is to watch if the winning team seems like such a sure thing?
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Red Bull has two 1-2 finishes and has been dominant in both races. Max Verstappen is as clear of a favorite in the betting odds as the sport has seen in several years.
Charles Leclerc won in Australia last year from pole position, but that would be a shocking result this year. Red Bull only has one win in Australia, back in 2011 with Sebastian Vettel. That was a similarly dominant season for Red Bull, which won 12 of the 19 races that year led by Vettel’s 11 wins.
This year, Verstappen is favored to take the top spot in qualifying (-225, 4-to-9) and to win the race (-275, 4-to-11) this weekend. He’s a whopping -500 (1-to-5) to win the championship this season. The championship odds are simultaneously logical given the general perception around Verstappen this season and also a bit wild considering he only leads teammate Sergio Perez by a point in the standings. No one is expecting an actual competition between the two Red Bull drivers.
Australian Grand Prix odds
Will Australia be a change of pace and put a temporary halt to Red Bull’s early season dominance? Our F1 crew answered questions to preview the race.
Does Aston Martin have the second best car? Is Fernando Alonso just that good? Are his two podiums a bit of a fluke?
Madeline Coleman: Fernando Alonso is a talented driver, so when combined with having a competitive car, no, his podiums aren’t a fluke. Aston Martin seems to have nailed its car design, and to echo Alonso’s comments after the season opener, “If we are strong in the next two races, I think we will have a very good 2023.” Australia is the second race since the Spaniard made these remarks so I believe this weekend will be a good sign about whether F1 has a fourth regular podium contender.
Jeff Gluck: When you factor in preseason testing plus the performance over the first two races, it sure feels like Aston does have the second-best car for now. The most telling sign would be if Lance Stroll starts reeling off top-five finishes while Alonso keeps getting podiums. If Stroll suddenly is out-running some of the Ferrari or Mercedes drivers on a regular basis, that says a whole lot.
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Jordan Bianchi: While the sample size may be small — just two races and offseason testing — the evidence strongly suggests that Aston Martin has no worse than the third-best car, if not second depending on if Ferrari is at a given race weekend. And when you add a formidable and highly motivated driver like Alonso to the mix, you’re likely going to see results like what’s occurred thus far. What remains to be seen is whether Aston Martin can find even more performance out of its car, because then Alonso stands a great chance of snapping a winless streak that extends back to 2013.
Max Verstappen is -275 (4-to-11) to win this weekend, giving him an implied chance of winning the race at just over 73%. Outside of penalties, do you see any reason to not have him as the favorite every weekend?
Coleman: Based on how the grid has looked after two races, Verstappen will be an obvious favorite this season. There really isn’t another team that is able to challenge Red Bull right now, and his own teammate, Sergio Pérez, could be Verstappen’s main championship competition.
Gluck: There’s obviously no value in betting on Verstappen to win a race. Your best hope in picking an outright winner is to hope Verstappen has some sort of mechanical trouble and then Pérez swoops in to take the victory instead. Either that or you could pair the teammates in some sort of parlay. But even then, it’s clear Red Bull is far and away the top team and the season already has the inevitable feel of a runaway after two races.
Bianchi: No. None. Not at all. Verstappen is the overwhelming favorite, as he should be. The only reason he won’t win Sunday is because something happens in qualifying impacting where he starts or he doesn’t make it to the finish line in the race because of mechanical failure or accident. This is his race to win or lose.
It’s only been two races, but which team do you think will finish higher between Ferrari and Mercedes?
Coleman: This one is trickier because Ferrari had the early DNF and grid penalty. Meanwhile, Toto Wolff labeled Bahrain as “one of the worst days in racing” for Mercedes while chatting with Sky Sports. It comes down to which teams’ weaknesses are less detrimental. Ferrari’s main weakness is the tire degradation issues, but they will end up finishing higher than Mercedes. The Silver Arrows have a harder battle with its car concept, though it is tied in points with Aston Martin right now.
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Gluck: Ferrari is still going to have faster cars overall, you’d think. But like last year, there’s also an opportunity for Ferrari to take itself out of races for one heartbreaking reason or another – while Mercedes often seems to maximize its performance even with a lesser car. It’s sort of maddening to see Mercedes still so far off by its own standards after an offseason which was supposed to provide a reset. On a normal week, if everything plays out without safety cars or mechanical troubles, you’d think it would go: Red Bull, Aston Martin, Ferrari, Mercedes.
Bianchi: It already feels like Mercedes has focused its attention on 2024, effectively writing off the current season knowing its car is slow with little that can be done to correct it. This gives the advantage to Ferrari even though questions persist about its mechanical reliability and race strategy.
Lewis Hamilton is 38. It appears Mercedes doesn’t have a car that can win on pure merit for the second straight year. This is a tough question, but is it fair to wonder if we have seen him win his last F1 race?
Coleman: I understand why people are wondering this, but the bigger question may be has he won his last race with Mercedes. He’s a seven-time world champion, and his contract is up at the end of this season. Wolff said in Saudi Arabia he’s “absolutely confident” Hamilton will stay with the team past this year. However, the team boss did recognize that if Hamilton wants that eighth title, a competitive car is a must. He said, “If we cannot demonstrate that we’re able to give him a car in the next couple of years, then he needs to look everywhere. I don’t think he’s doing it at that stage, but I will have no grouch if that happens in a year or two.” Hamilton has the talent to win again, but will he have the car? Red Bull may have the fastest car, but F1 is a series where anything is possible.
Gluck: You can wonder, but Hamilton will win again. Even though every weekend will begin with Red Bull as the fastest cars, all it takes is one oddly-timed safety car or a crash at the start of the race to put Hamilton in a favorable position to win. As nightmarish as last year was for Mercedes, Hamilton still led laps in seven different races. These events aren’t decided on paper, which is how you get winners like Esteban Ocon (2021), Pierre Gasly (2020) and a pre-Red Bull Pérez (2020). With Hamilton’s instincts, talent and drive, he’ll seize on the opportunity if he gets it.
Bianchi: It’s definitely fair. In fact, this question was a discussion topic on a recent episode of The Teardown because of the reasons cited above. Mercedes does not have a contending car thus far and it’s a strong possibility that this continues to be the case throughout the season. And despite its pedigree, confidence is waning that over the offseason Mercedes will be able to resolve its design flaws to increase performance, which means Hamilton, should he sign an extension with Mercedes, is facing the prospect of entering his age 40 season mired in a three‐year winless streak. Maybe by then he decides to leave for a better chance to win elsewhere, though at that age there are no guarantees that he’ll still have the necessary speed to challenge for the top step on the podium.
Prediction time: What do you think will be the podium in Australia?
Coleman: Verstappen, Pérez, Leclerc
Gluck: Verstappen, Pérez, Alonso
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Bianchi: Verstappen, Leclerc, Alonso
(Photo of Fernando Alonso: Giuseppe Cacace / AFP via Getty Images)
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